Blending Borders #8
Blending Borders
A Fortnightly Newsletter
September 21st, 2021
Issue #8
This Newsletter explores ongoing issues and perspectives from India’s neighbouring countries, including - Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan, Maldives and Afghanistan.
In Brief, I discuss:- China’s vaccine diplomacy, 21st SCO summit, India-Nepal joint military exercise, Bhutan-Bangladesh trade, Bangladesh-UK dialogue, Sri Lanka FDI attraction, Myanmar humanitarian crisis
The Raging Pandemic
Is China bolstering its soft power in India’s neighbourhood?
If you have observed in my previous issues of the newsletter, a large number of vaccines have been donated or provided to India’s neighbouring countries by China. It definitely raises the question of whether Beijing is attempting to bolster its soft power in the neighbourhood and, if so, why? Is China trying to sideline India or is it simply increasing its influence in the region to raise its status as a global power? Nonetheless, while there are no definitive answers to these questions, Beijing continues with its vaccine diplomacy in the region.
According to The Global Times, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced at a recent Foreign Ministers meeting on the Afghan issue that China will be providing 3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Afghanistan, as well as emergency humanitarian aid worth $31 million including food, medicines and other materials for the winter. Wang also urged Afghanistan’s five neighbouring countries - Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran to provide urgent relief to the crisis-ridden country as the Taliban government officially takes control.
Meanwhile, according to Xinhua, China has donated 4 million doses of its Sinopharm vaccine to Sri Lanka and another 5 million doses to Bangladesh. Nepal has received a batch of 4.4 million doses of the Chinese vaccine Vero cell. The Nepali government has now received the entire 6 million doses it had purchased from China in August. The Kathmandu Post reported that Nepal is expected to receive 100,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine under the Covax scheme. Apart from Chinese vaccines, Russia’s Sputnik is also making its way into the Indian subcontinent. Sri Lanka received its second component of 120,000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccine on September 19th. Afghanistan, too expressed its interest in purchasing the Russian made vaccine.
According to a local report, Bhutan is leading the way in its vaccination program as the tiny Himalayan kingdom is expected to achieve herd immunity by early October, with about 80% of its total population fully vaccinated. On the other hand, Sri Lanka has managed to vaccinate 50% of its population fully against COVID-19, said a local journalist.
Before I go into discussing other developments, the Takshashila Institution is offering a special credit course on Ethical Reasoning in Public Policy. If you are interested in applying for the course do click on this link to register.
Xi Jinping addresses the 21st Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit
On September 17th, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the council of heads of state of the SCO. The Afghan issue was discussed among the participating leaders on the pretext of upholding common security among the SCO member states.
“We need to pursue common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and take tough actions against the "three forces" of terrorism, separatism and extremism, including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. We need to strengthen cooperation on counter-narcotics, border control and security for major events, and speedily improve the SCO's security cooperation mechanism. We need to enhance the capacity of competent authorities of SCO countries to maintain stability and respond to emergencies. We SCO member states need to step up coordination to facilitate a smooth transition in Afghanistan and help Afghanistan truly embark on a path of peace, stability and development”.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi virtually participated in the summit as well. Not much detail was provided in the press statement issued on the meeting by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) but PM Modi acknowledged the security concerns related to the threat of terrorism and “noted that recent developments in Afghanistan could further exacerbate this trend towards extremism.” The Prime Minister also participated in an outreach session on Afghanistan between SCO and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) via video message.
“In the video message, Prime Minister suggested that SCO could develop a code of conduct on 'zero tolerance' towards terrorism in the region, and highlighted the risks of drugs, arms and human trafficking from Afghanistan. Noting the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, he reiterated India's solidarity with the Afghan people”.
On the previous day, 16th September, the Foreign Ministers of Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan met on the margins of the SCO and CSTO summits in Dushanbe to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. Some points I found noteworthy include:
“They stressed the importance of engaging those states which should bear primary responsibility for post-conflict socio-economic reconstruction in Afghanistan, and should provide Afghanistan with urgently needed economic, livelihood and humanitarian assistance”.
“Given the security challenges emanating from the territory of Afghanistan, they stressed the need to coordinate efforts to counter threats, especially the spread of terrorism and drug trafficking, in order to ensure regional stability and address legitimate concerns and interests of neighbouring states”.
“The Ministers decided to continue coordination between Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran on Afghanistan and hold meetings at the ministerial, special envoy and the ambassadorial levels in due course”.
Bangladesh participates in the US-led meeting of major economies on energy and climate
On 17th September, U.S President Joe Biden convened a meeting of the ‘Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate’ (MEF). The agenda of the meeting was the urgency to strengthen climate ambitions ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP 26) in Glasgow. Out of the countries located in the Indian subcontinent, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh was present in the virtual gathering.
“Prime Minister Hasina of Bangladesh, representing the Climate Vulnerable Forum, stressed the significant impacts facing vulnerable countries and the importance of moving from “climate vulnerability to climate resilience to climate prosperity.”
Bangladesh was the only neighbourhood country to participate in the meeting, accompanying India, China, UK, the EU, the European Council, Australia, Japan, Korea, Indonesia UN, Germany, Russia, Mexico, Argentina and Italy. Dhaka’s participation could be an indication of its commitment to strengthening its climate change efforts and contribute to the collective international goals associated with global warming and climate change. It could also demonstrate its willingness to slowly become a rising power in the neighbourhood. A step in the right direction.
Bangladesh-UK Strategic Dialogue
On 9th September, Bangladesh and the United Kingdom held their fourth strategic dialogue in London, UK. The dialogue covered the exchange of views across bilateral relations between the two countries; ranging from - political and diplomatic relations, global and regional issues, economic and development partnerships and security and defence-related issues. You can read the full press statement here. But here are some points that I found noteworthy:
“Following the UK’s Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, the UK highlighted its long-term commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, recognising the region’s increasing importance to a range of global challenges including conflict prevention, support for the rules based international order, countering terrorism and climate change. The UK and Bangladesh agreed to cooperate on these global challenges”
“The UK and Bangladesh affirmed their enduring commitment to the people of Afghanistan and agreed that a democratic and inclusive Afghanistan was the best guarantee of the country’s stability and development. The UK and Bangladesh further agreed that the country must not become a safe haven for terrorism, nor a source of terrorist attacks on others. Both parties committed to work closely on this issue, recognising the importance of a coordinated international response”.
“Both countries agreed a dialogue on the future shape of their development partnership as Bangladesh consolidates middle income status. Bangladesh welcomed the UK’s support in areas such as knowledge, innovation, and skill development, enhanced co-operation between British and Bangladeshi universities, and in harnessing the Blue Economy”.
“Both countries welcomed joint military cooperation, including training, professional military education and instructional exchanges, and looked forward to inaugurating a Defence Dialogue later this year. This would create opportunities for broader discussions on bilateral defence and military issues, including deployments, visits, joint exercises, training, workshops, defence supply, and procurement, and cooperation on capabilities”.
Both countries addressed pressing issues like the Rohingya crisis and the coup-takeover in Myanmar. Afghanistan was also included, with both countries reaffirming their commitment to the people of Afghanistan and supported an inclusive, democratic government to safeguard stability and development in the region.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh-Australia relations is gaining prominence as the Australian High Commissioner to Bangladesh paid a courtesy call to Sultana Afroz, Secretary to the Bangladesh government and CEO of Public Private Partnership Authority (PPPA). Both representatives discussed the future of relations between their countries and Secretary Afroz acknowledged Australia’s contribution to Bangladesh, particularly relating to poverty alleviation, education and skill development. She also proposed that Australia could explore the opportunities to develop, implement and operate not only PPP mega construction projects but also social infrastructure PPP projects related to climate change, waste management, health and education, according to The Daily Star.
15th Indo-Nepal joint military exercise
The 15th Indo-Nepal joint military exercise was held yesterday. The exercise, named “Surya Kiran” seemed to be a very productive one as the armies from both countries were expected to learn each other’s experiences in disaster relief and humanitarian assistance methods, jungle warfare and high altitude warfare. The Indian Express quoted Captain Kuldeep, a liaison officer from the Indian side, saying, “Infantry battalions from both countries will participate in the exercise. the armies will be sharing with each other mountain warfare tactics, disaster assistance, rescue and relief operations in mountainous terrains. The exercise includes special 48 hours of gruelling exercise to validate counter-insurgency operations in mountainous terrains.” The exercise is said to strengthen bilateral relations between India and Nepal and it is also a part of an initiative to develop interoperability between the two armies. It would also bring the countries closer as friends.
India-Nepal power deal
A report by Nepali Times said that Nepal signed a power exchange deal with India to increase two-way electricity trade. Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) Managing Director Kulman Ghising signed an MoU with the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India on September 8th, for the construction of a second, transnational 400kV transmission line from Butwal to Gorakhpur. Once the construction of this line is completed, Nepal will be able to export up to 2000 MW of electricity to India and it also has the potential to be involved with new power deals in Bangladesh.
Another deal is in the making as Nepal’s Tourism Ministry has given clearance to the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal to sign a long-term government-to-government deal with India for periodic airport surveillance and radar flight inspections said The Kathmandu Post. “The government-to-government deal will ensure testing of the equipment and airport in a timely manner”, said Buddhi Sagar Lamichhane, joint secretary at the Ministry overlooking civil aviation affairs.
Sri Lanka attracts massive FDI investment
According to a local report, the Board of Investment (BOI) of Sri Lanka has managed to secure $461 million (close to $0.5 billion) foreign direct investment and local investments till now. The figure is a result of the consummation of investments from 103 new expansionary projects approved by the BOI. The report says BOI sources stated that from January to August 2021, a total of 28 new projects and 75 expansionary projects were approved and undertaken by the BOI. BOI Chairman Sanjaya Mohottala stated that nearly 50% of capital formation which took place in 2020 were from existing BOI investors who expanded their footprint in order to take advantage of global opportunities, indicating the eagerness of countries to invest in Sri Lanka and possibly develop closer ties to the island nation.
Bhutan-Bangladesh exports
There has been a significant upward trend as Bangladesh’s exports to Bhutan could rise, after the former signed a preferential trade agreement (PTA) with Bhutan back in December 2020. Bhutan was chosen to sign this bilateral agreement as it was the first to recognize a newly independent Bangladesh in 1971. So, evidently, there is a lot of personal meaning behind signing this bilateral trade deal. According to The Daily Star, the agreement allows duty-free export of 100 goods and import of 34 goods. The eligible export-oriented items include baby clothes and clothing accessories, men's trousers and shorts, jackets and blazers, jute and jute goods, leather and leather goods, dry cell batteries, fans, watches, potatoes, condensed milk, cement, toothbrush, plywood, particle board, mineral and carbonated water, green tea and orange, pineapple, and guava juice. And The items that will get duty-free imports include oranges, apples, ginger, fruit juice, milk, natural honey, wheat or meslin flour, homogenised preparations of jams, fruit jellies, marmalades, food preparations of soybeans, mineral water, wheat bran, quartzite, cement clinker, limestone, wooden particle boards, and furniture.
But at the same time, Bhutan’s inflation rate is said to be on the rise, which will have negative economic consequences for the tiny kingdom. The inflation rate grew to more than 8 per cent on average until July this year compared to 5.6 per cent last year. The spike was due to disruption in the supply of imported goods and price hikes of fuel and local produce.
Turmoil in Myanmar - a snapshot of the unfolding humanitarian crisis
Finally, here is a detailed and extremely well-curated infographic on the deepening humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and the coup takeover:
Source: OCHA
Other Stories
Myanmar earned nearly $9 billion from border trade in more than eleven months less than $1.3 billion compared to the previous year.
The Government of Nepal and the World Bank signed two separate additional financing agreements of $50 million each to support the implementation of the government’s flagship School Sector Development Program in the education sector and public management reforms in the health sector.
India saw the import of cheap teas from Kenya, Nepal and other destinations shooting up to 12.16 million kg in the first six months of 2021, more than three-fourths of the full-year imports of 15.86 million kg in 2019.
A total of 1,710 junta soldiers were killed and more than 630 wounded during 1,171 shootouts and assassinations involving ethnic armed groups and civilian resistance fighters over the past three months, according to Myanmar’s civilian National Unity Government (NUG).
Russia and China are looking to tap into Afghanistan’s $1 trillion resource reserves.
Bangladesh has appealed to the UN to resolve its decades-old dispute with India over the maritime demarcation in the southern Bay of Bengal.
Suggested Reads
Bangladesh as a gateway between ASEAN and SAARC - Dezan Shira and Associates - ASEAN Briefing
China’s infrastructure projects in Myanmar, Nepal and Tibet threaten to encircle India - Jayanta Kalita - The Irrawaddy
UN Ambassador saga spotlights China’s cautious approach to Myanmar - Bertil Lintner - The Irrawaddy
Sino-Nepali ties in the ‘post-Afghan’ era - Bhaskar Koirala - Nepali Times
Finding solutions to fishermen transgressions in the India-Bangladesh maritime space - Sohini Bose - ORF
Bhutan’s journey to space - Yangyel Lhaden - Kuensel
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That’s it for today! I hope you enjoyed this issue.
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This Newsletter is written by Ameera Rao, a Research Assistant at the Takshashila Institution. She has previously completed a BA (Hons) in International Relations from King’s College London.